In the British magazine The Economist, an article titled “Vladimir Putin loses control over Russia” appeared. The author is a former high-ranking official of the Kremlin government who wished to remain anonymous. He argues that “every new step of Vladimir Putin, meant to ensure his retention of power, only accelerates the process of disintegration”.
The article describes a profound change within the power system in Moscow: the elites no longer talk about the war in Ukraine as “our project”, but as “Putin’s war”.
According to the author, in the power circles of Russia, the feeling that President Vladimir Putin has pushed the country into a stalemate is becoming increasingly clear, and no one knows what comes next. The first sign would have been the change in the language used by officials, governors, and businessmen close to the Kremlin.
“Until last year, everyone was saying ‘we’ and ‘ours’. Now, they talk about ‘his decisions’, ‘his war’, ‘his agenda'”, notes the author.
The former official asserts that it is not a matter of an open revolt against the Kremlin leader, but rather a psychological break between power and its own elites. The regime continues to control the repressive apparatus and the monopoly of force, however, it would have lost something essential: the ability to offer a credible vision for the future of Russia.
The analysis identifies four main reasons for this erosion of Putin’s authority.
1. The costs of war become impossible to hide
The first factor is the ever-increasing cost of the war in Ukraine. According to the author, the Kremlin initially tried to present the conflict as a “special operation” carried out by paid military personnel and mercenaries, while the population was supposed to continue their normal life.
However, the prolonged war has brought inflation, higher taxes, infrastructure degradation, and a wave of restrictions and censorship.
“Society pays the costs of war at a national level, without receiving a clear purpose in return”, the text states.
2. The elites demand rules and protection
The second reason relates to the growing dissatisfaction of the economic elites. After Western sanctions, many oligarchs and businessmen repatriated their capitals and assets to Russia.
The issue is that, without the protection of Western courts and the international legal system, conflicts between interest groups must be resolved within a system considered arbitrary and unpredictable.
The author asserts that, over the past three years, private assets worth approximately 5 trillion rubles — equivalent to about 60 billion dollars — have been confiscated, nationalized, or transferred to individuals close to the Kremlin.
“Even those loyal to the regime no longer demand democracy, but clear rules and institutions capable of arbitrating conflicts,” asserts the former Russian official.
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