Regional insecurity and the search for resilience for Moldova – based on EU or NATO assistance?
Analysis by Denios Cenușa
Although stability in the region remains precarious, security prospects appear to be balanced in favor of Ukraine and its Western allies in the face of Russian aggression. Military assistance to Ukraine is increasing, racking up billions of euros from the EU and others, and Ukrainian military forces are mobilizing to regain control of territories in the Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Lugansk and Donetsk regions. The prolongation of Russia’s war against Ukraine makes the socio-economic costs difficult for Western decision makers to manage and fully bear. Under pressure from the unknown, Brussels is facing difficulties in imposing a sixth sanctions package against Russia, which was promised shortly after the fifth wave of sanctions (adopted in April).
The failure to adopt the new sanctions stems from the EU’s inability to reach a consensus on the embargo on oil imports from Russia, where Hungary is seeking exceptions, citing economic reasons. As EU governments address cost issues for industries and citizens, Russia calls for import substitution, attempts to establish external administration of the businesses of Western companies that have left Russia (around 1,000 entities), and diversification of their routes and export destinations. Most recently, the Russian authorities imposed counter-sanctions on 31 companies from “unfriendly” EU countries, which include a ban on financial transactions and a ban on access to Russian ports. These could lead to a revision of the contractual relations for the supply of Russian energy resources and their subsequent increase in price, which would impede post-pandemic economic recovery.
The effects of the Russian temporary occupation in Ukraine
Vladimir Putin’s regime is counting on worsening food shortages in Asia and Africa, but also on the global energy crisis to continue the war against Ukraine. The escalation of existing crises will increase the pressure on the West, both financially and in terms of security. Russia is aware of this and deliberately uses the destabilization of world security to downplay the Ukrainian cause and attack Western solidarity. The Russian ambassador in Washington, Anatoly Antonov, has said that Russia will not “capitulate” to Ukraine and that all goals will be achieved. This speech explicitly indicates that Russia will continue its aggression, adjusting its objectives to developments on the battlefield. Ukraine therefore has no choice but to defend itself but also to regain control of its entire territory, for now exclusively by force.
Despite the painful sanctions, which have already caused an exodus of certain categories of workers (from the IT sector) and foreign investors (Western companies), the Kremlin continues its efforts to occupy the southern Ukraine. The military-civilian administrations controlled by Russia try to de-Ukrainize temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories (Kherson, Zaporozhye, Donetsk and Lugansk), preparing the ground for their “annexation” to Russia under the model of Crimea in 2014. Without the complete liberation of the country from Russian occupation, Ukraine’s national security will be seriously undermined in the long run. Threats to neighboring countries will automatically increase, regardless of whether they are protected by NATO membership, like Romania, or rely on an untenable neutral status, as in the case of Moldova. The authorities of the latter seem to be trying to compensate for the problematic neutrality, proclaimed “on paper”, but little effective in practice, with international assistance to build up state resilience (IPN, April 2022) and a presence, albeit symbolic, in the agenda of global powers. This type of intentions has been illustrated during the participation of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Moldova, Nicu Popescu, in the meeting of the heads of diplomacy of the G7 states on May 14.
At the G7 meeting, Moldova was recognized for its territorial integrity and sovereignty, and reiterated its readiness to provide assistance through the Moldova Support Platform, launched in April (accumulating commitments of around €700 million: loans and grants new and old). However, the G7 focused on reforms instead of focusing on preparedness of Moldova for adverse situations and scenarios. The representatives of the G7 countries referred to the destabilization of the Transnistrian region, which does not yet contain real threats to Ukraine or Moldova (Riddle, May 2022). At the same time, the G7 overlooked the fact that the recent events in the Transnistrian region are a sufficient prerequisite to explicitly mention the need for assistance that would enable and prepare the Moldovan army and law enforcement for crises in the ongoing regional context. Instead, perhaps at Chisinau’s request, Western states deliberately chose to focus solely on reforms. However, if the “reforms” also include military assistance, then it makes more sense for this to be made public, since European officials have already openly declared similar intentions, but only with reference to non-lethal military equipment (Council of the EU, May 2022). Likewise, although the G7 states insist on supporting the stability of Moldova, they omitted the peaceful solution of the Transnistria conflict, which represents an important element for the stability of the country.
EU (military) assistance or other type of support from NATO?
According to article 11 of the Constitution (1994), Moldova is a state with permanent neutrality. In reality, there is no national or international mechanism to guarantee the country’s neutrality, and the defense capabilities of the military are unknown to the public, largely because there are no recent evaluations published by the competent authorities. Although the country’s military doctrine is outdated (1995) and stems from permanent neutrality principle, the national security documents are more recent and address the concept of neutrality beyond non-adherence to military blocs. Thus, the Parliament’s decision of July 2018 approved the national defense strategy, as well as an Action Plan, which provided for the defense budget to be increased from MDL 625 million in 2018 to MDL 1.4 billion in 2025. In 2018, the government controlled by the then oligarchic forces conceptualized the neutrality of the country in terms of international cooperation and contribution to security through investment in a professional army. The same principle is defended by the current pro-EU government, which would contradict the international isolationism promoted by the pro-Russian forces, who want legislation limiting the participation of the national army in international missions and other forms of interaction with military organizations or military camps (with the West). The government in Chisinau is currently implementing the military and defense strategies adopted by the oligarchic forces in 2018, which in some places have lost relevance and do not contain explicit aspects related to state resilience.
Source: https://www.ipn.md
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