Vladimir Putin does not see the war in Ukraine as an endgame, but as a stage. Even in the event of a peace agreement, Western analysts consulted by The Sun warn that the Kremlin leader might use the break to regroup, rebuild his military capacity, and strike again – perhaps even directly at NATO’s flank.
One name constantly returns in expert analyses: Narva, a small Estonian town on the border with Russia, with a predominantly Russian-speaking population and an extremely sensitive strategic position.
“There are all the signs that Putin considers 2026 as his moment,” says Tim Wilsey, a former British diplomat and professor at King’s College London. “He hasn’t had such a confluence of opportunities for a long time – weaknesses in Ukraine, fatigue in the West, political divisions, and uncertainty in Washington.”
“A favorable agreement” and a dangerous pause
According to Wilsey, Putin is prepared to sell any form of compromise to the domestic public as a great victory, regardless of the real costs.
“There is a serious chance that Putin will get an agreement favorable to him and present it at home as a historic triumph,” warns the analyst. “But that would not mean the end of his imperial project.”
The major problem, experts say, is an agreement that stops the fighting without stopping the ambitions. A “peace” that would give the Kremlin time to rebuild the army – estimated by Wilsey at about three years – and to resume pressures by other means: sabotage, assassinations, political influence, hybrid attacks.
“If the weapons are silent in Ukraine, the next phase will not be safer, but dirtier,” says Wilsey.
Narva, the ultimate test for NATO
The most dangerous scenario remains, in his opinion, Narva – an Estonian city with approximately 80% Russian-speaking population, located right on the contact line between NATO and Russia.
“The real question is: do we really believe that the United States would enter a war for a single city in Estonia?” says Wilsey. “I’m not so sure anymore.”
Details, HERE