The Chief of the General Staff of Russia, General Valeri Gherasimov, made a series of extensive statements on April 21 about the progress on the battlefield in Ukraine, during a visit to the command of the South Forces Group.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), these assertions are in direct contradiction with the available data, including reports from pro-Russian sources, reports Euromaidan Press.
Analysts from ISW have assessed that Russia’s spring-summer offensive of 2026, launched no later than March 17, did not generate significant tactical gains. Moreover, the analysis indicates that Russian forces have been losing ground since March 1, despite official statements to the contrary.
Major differences between official statements and reality
Gherasimov stated that Russia would have conquered over 1,700 km² and 80 localities since the beginning of 2026, including in the Lugansk region. He also claimed that in just the months of March and April, Russian forces have conquered 700 km² of territory and 34 localities.
ISW, however, estimates that Russian forces have only taken over 381.5 km² of territory and 13 localities since January 1, also recording a net loss of approximately 59.79 km² of territory after March 1. Claims regarding the complete control of the Lugansk region are not new, having been repeated several times throughout the war, including after the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the fall of 2022.
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